Comments: No election after all

David and others,

In trying to make sense of all the white noise of election speculation, I wonder if you ever consult the betting markets to check the latest probabilities for the next overall majority.

In particular, I use one in particular - Betfair - where punters can both back and lay bets. In effect, people can trade probabilities and from the wisdom of crowds emerges probably the best estimate of election fortunes, without the profit margins of the betting companies confusing things.

Following the PM's announcement yesterday, the probability of a Labour majority at the next election has fallen from around 55% to under 40%, still the most likely outcome. The Conservatives have seen their probability of winning rise from 17% to 25%, still behind no overall majority at 35%. The poor Lib Dems have 0% chance of winning.

Interestingly, England's probability of winning the World Cup is just 10%, after yesterday's other big news.

Posted by Paul C at October 7, 2007 12:20 PM