Comments: How Labour put the squeeze on industry

David - when do you think global oil production will peak?

Posted by Minh at June 10, 2007 04:09 PM

Difficult to say with certainty - depends on the oil price as well as geology. The late 2020s seems to be the mainstream consensus.

Posted by David Smith at June 10, 2007 07:51 PM

Do higher oil prices bring the peak closer (by encouraging overproduction) or push it further out (by making prospects that are expensive to extract more viable)? I would say the former, as the oil price doesn't affect the energy return on energy invested in the prospects that are difficult to extract. Production of the tar sands in Canada already has an ERoEI approaching 1:1.

Posted by Minh at June 11, 2007 09:43 AM

Ahh...Fantasy Island - A declining manufacturing sector, but a knowleage economy of innovation and design offsetting it. Wait a moment - Italy - yes - Italy has been though this
(a) bloated public sector and non jobs to offset failing tradable industries.
(b) a knowledge economy renouned for incredible design and innovation from farrari to fashion to furniture - the great hope of the country to offset this decline.

Trouble is - that was in the 1980s. From 1981 to 1991 - Manufacturing/tradables sharply dropped as part of GDP. Government expended to over 50% of GDP to offset this decline.

Its knowledge economy was a real one. A nation renouned for innovation and design. By the 1990s the economy was split into the nullifiying government and bloated public services, and myriad small family businesses eeking out small market niches in the private economy.

The huge growth and burdens of their infernal public sector and government snuffed out thier knowledge economy.

There are a hundred stories I have of battling the mad rules and regulations from living in Italy - from the banking system to sending a parcel. But this sums it up.

To goto get your residence permit stamped, and you find it needs two stamps. Both employees own a stamp which is their designated job role you see. Of course, they cannot both be standing around on the same day, as the government is on a austerity drive and employees both non-jobs for the price of one by making them work alternate days.

So you have to have a permit processed which would take 5 mins anywhere else, you find you have go in one day to get one stamp, and then take a day off to go in the following day to get the other stamp from the other employee. What should take 5 mins takes two days to support two non jobs and 'full employment'!

Is this where we are heading?

Posted by J Law at June 12, 2007 07:36 PM

Peak oil is featured on the front page of todays independent

http://news.independent.co.uk/sci_tech/article2656034.ece

The article is discussed here:

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2664

Posted by Minh at June 14, 2007 09:56 PM

There's nothing like an old story. Asking the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre, a peak oil body, for a view on BP's Statistical Review of World Energy is a bit like asking the BNP whether they support increased immigration. There are some excellent people associated with the ODAC. notably Colin Campbell, but they are coming at it from a particular viewpoint. The BP Statistical Review is always worth studying. Interestingly, there is a body of opinion which says peak oil is all got up by the oil companies to keep the price high. I don't, I should say, accuse the ODAC or BP of this.

Posted by David Smith at June 15, 2007 10:11 AM

Of course the ODAC/ASPO are never going to say peak is a long long way off, but the same could be said about BP et al in the opposite case. Chevron are an example of an oil company who are saying we could be close to peak. Late 2020s sounds optimistic to me, from what I've read, but even in that case we probably needed to start preparations 10 years ago.

The charts in this article certainly seem to suggest to me that the picture is a bit worse than BP at least are saying!

http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/2651

Posted by Minh at June 16, 2007 01:15 PM
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