Comments: Jobless rise threatens growth

Times they are achanging. Some anecdotal supplemenatries......

1) I work in the bus industry. For the first time in as long as anyone can remember (decades) we do not have a problem with staff recruitment and are actually able to select staff. This is reported by colleagues elsewhere across the UK so is not a local phenomenon. This is partly due to pay rates being more realsitic, partly due to a larger pool of jobseekers, but mainly due we believe to migrant workers flooding the market for traditional lower paid jobs.
2) Migrant workers are having a disproportionate impact. Whilst London may have become used to this it is a new phenomenon for the provinces and is glaringly obvious. It is not just in the traditional areas of hotel/catering/cleaning but across the board - our local newsagent for example, the reception staff at the sports centre, language teachers, and transport, it is very very noticeable. Great for holding down pay expectations, and inflation, and unlocking productivity, and resolving skills shortages. Not so good in terms of a growing unemployment and benefits culture.
3) The economically inactive students you refer to are even more of a problem to the stats - a high proportion of these students are studying for degrees for which there is minimal demand - media and drama for example. Three years of training, followed by another year or two of retraining for the jobs that are available, and many more years to pay off the debt. Applications from graduates for jobs such as receptionist are commonplace.

I posted elsewhere on the theory of non linearity - the longer the settled period the greater are the shocks when they come.

Regards

Posted by David Brown at January 22, 2006 10:02 PM

Hi Dave,

But of course, deterioration in the economy and rise in unemployment would never have any effect on our highly indebtedted housing market in any way because it's different this time, right?

Posted by chris walker at January 22, 2006 10:19 PM

Wrinklies!!

I take great offence...

Posted by Beryl at January 23, 2006 08:29 AM

Sorry Beryl. No offence intended. I'm heading that way myself!

Posted by David Smith at January 23, 2006 05:21 PM