Wednesday, July 23, 2008
The MPC's three-way split
Posted by David Smith at 10:00 AM
Category: Thoughts and responses

The two most "academic" members of the Bank of England's monetary policy committee (MPC) were diametrically opposed this month, David "Danny" Blanchflower voting for a quarter-point rate cut and Tim Besley favouring an increase of a similar amount. The other seven members opted for an unchanged 5% Bank rate. Nerves may be set on edge by the MPC's reference to August as the best time to communicate any rate change. The tone of the discussion appears to suggest, however, that the majority of committee members are happy to remain on hold. The minutes are here.

Sunday, July 20, 2008
Brown's rule-book goes into the dustbin of history
Posted by David Smith at 09:00 AM
Category: David Smith's other articles

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On my bookshelf there is a tome I have been meaning to dip back into for some time. It is called Reforming Britain's Economic and Financial Policy.

Written by Ed Balls, then Treasury chief economic adviser, now in charge of what used to be the education department, and Gus O'Donnell, then head of the government's economic service, now head of the civil service, it was intended to be the bible of new Labour macroeconomic policy.

The foreword was by Gordon Brown, who was inspired by his own achievement. The reforms of 1997 ranked alongside those of the 1940s, he suggested, as he traced the "intellectual journey" to "an institutional framework that commanded market credibility and public trust".

The three pillars of this new framework were an independent Bank of England to deliver low inflation, "a fiscal policy framework which is delivering sound public finances" and a Financial Services Authority to ensure financial stability. The book was sold as suitable for students. Maybe it is now only appropriate for historians, particularly those interested in crumbling pillars.

What should we make of the fiscal policy pillar of which Brown was so proud when Treasury officials are busy working on a rewriting of his rules?

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Friday, July 18, 2008
Borrowing up, fiscal rules may be rewritten
Posted by David Smith at 10:00 AM
Category: Thoughts and responses

The latest numbers for the public finances make grim reading for the Treasury. Revenues are being hit by the weakening economy, so public sector net borrowing in June was £9.2 billion, compared with £6.3 billion a year earlier. In the April-June period net borrowing was £24.4 billion, up from £14.7 billion in April-June 2007. So a clear worsening, detailed here, at a time when the Financial Times has reported that the Treasury is considering a rewrite of the fiscal rules.

The Treasury has hinted before that the end of the economic cycle would provide an opportunity for reassessing the fiscal rules. But any change in the coming months will smack of political expediency.

Thursday, July 17, 2008
IMF is a little less gloomy
Posted by David Smith at 10:30 PM
Category: Thoughts and responses

The world economy is in a "tough spot" but the International Monetary Fund has revised up its growth numbers marginally. It now expects 4.1% global growth this year, slowing to 3.9% next. Projections for the UK are revised up to 1.8% this year, 1.7% next. Unusual to see anybody revising up growth forecasts these days, though the Fed also did so for the US economy earlier this week. The IMF's update is here.

Wednesday, July 16, 2008
Labour market turning, but gradually
Posted by David Smith at 09:40 AM
Category: Thoughts and responses

A 15,500 rise in the claimant count to just over 840,000 last month will grab all the headlines, but the Labour Force Survey measure showed unemployment rising by a modest 12,000 in the March-May period, smaller than the originally estimated 38,000 increase for February-April. Employment was up by 61,000 over the March-May period. The job market is clearly softening, but gradually. Details here.

Tuesday, July 15, 2008
Inflation soars to 3.8%
Posted by David Smith at 10:00 AM
Category: Thoughts and responses

Consumer price inflation came out at 3.8% for June, higher than the 3.6% expected by analysts. It is all food and energy - core inflation is only 1.6% - but the Bank would like to see that core measure lower too. RPI inflation rose to 4.6%, from 4.3%. Interestingly, RPIX inflation, excluding mortgage interest payments, is now at 4.8%, up from 4.4%. Details here.

Also today, the British Retail Consortium suggests retail sales are weakening but not collapsing. On a total basis, sales were up by 2.1% on a year ago, while like-for-like sales were down by 0.4%. The survey is here. Also, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors says the housing market has pretty much seized up, though buyer interest is said to be still there. Here are the details.

Sunday, July 13, 2008
A jobless rise but not a bloodbath
Posted by David Smith at 09:00 AM
Category: David Smith's other articles

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Every day, it seems, brings a new announcement of job losses from housebuilders. Totting up the numbers for the past week or so gives a figure not far short of 10,000, and this is not counting the thousands of self-employed sub-contractors who were building and fitting out new homes until the sector hit the buffers.

The job market is turning, though in a quieter way than it used to. Readers with long memories will recall the News at Ten job maps of the 1980s, when it was possible to pinpoint how many jobs were being cut and where. In a service-based economy, that is harder. People are quietly let go.

Even in Britain’s factories, where employment has dropped by an average of nearly 12,000 a month over the past decade, the process has been much less visible than it used to be.

This week we will get the official labour-market statistics, which will almost certainly show another rise in unemployment, though probably a modest one. The question is whether we are on the brink of something bigger.

There is another question, which is whether migrant workers will make the job-market adjustment in a sharply slowing economy easier or harder.

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Friday, July 11, 2008
FT house price index merely slips
Posted by David Smith at 09:45 AM
Category: Thoughts and responses

The FT house price index, compiled by Acadametrics, continues to provide an oasis of calm when set against the Halifax and Nationwide numbers. It showed a drop of 0.6% last month but a rise of 1.2% compared with a year earlier. Prices are slipping rather than crashing. The lenders' data started falling very sharply four months ago, and might have been expected to feed through to this, the broadest index, by now, so something is going on. The index is here, together with accompanying tables.