Tuesday, April 29, 2014
Scaling the GDP peak
Posted by David Smith at 03:00 PM
Category: Thoughts and responses

With today's gross domestic product figures for the first quarter of 2014 we are very close to the pre-crisis peak. The level of GDP - before revisions - is now just 0.6% below its Q1 2008 level. In time we will probably find that the peak was surpassed earlier.

It already has been for GDP excluding North Sea oil and gas. In the first quarter that measure was 0.4% above its Q1 2008 level. North Sea oil has been a considerable drag on the economy: Scotland please note.

GDP in the first quarter did well, rising by 0.8%, in spite of the floods. The Office for National Statistics decided they were not serious enough to be regarded as a special statistical event, but a rise of just 0.3% in construction and a drop of 0.7% in agriculture suggest some impact.

In the past, healthy rises in services and manufacturing have not been enough to offset construction horrors. There was no construction horror this time, and services growth of 0.9% and industrial production up 0.8% (manufacturing 1.3%) were in line with the overall GDP rise. More here.