Friday, January 10, 2014
Q4 growth looks good, but not spectacular
Posted by David Smith at 04:30 PM
Category: Thoughts and responses

Since this morning's industrial production and constrcution figures came out, economists have been running through the numbers to come up with estimates of fourth quarter gross domestic product.

Both industrial production and manufacturing were flat in November, while construction output - which is highly volatile - dropped by 4%. The official figures, not for the first time, contrast with the strength of the surveys.

But the official figures are what the Office for National Statistics will use when calculating its estimate of Q4 growth, to be published on January 28. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research projects 0.7% Q4 growth, weaker than the 0.8% recorded in the second and third quarters. Many City economists project 0.6%.

A slight weakening of growth will ease pressure on the Bank of England, and these first estimates by the ONS are typically revised higher. More on industrial production here and construction here.