Wednesday, February 27, 2013
GDP starts to look a little better
Posted by David Smith at 01:30 PM
Category: Thoughts and responses

Gross domestic product in the fourth quarter of last year was unrevised, with the fall of 0.3% initially reported left unchanged, even though the detail on manufacturing and construction was a little better, though services slightly worse.

Household spending rose by 0.2%, its fifth successive quarterly rise but gross fixed capital formation - investment - fell by 0.4%, after a 0.6% drop in the third quarter.

The good news was in past quarters. Growth in the third quarter was revised back up to 1%, while the contraction in the first quarter of 2012 has been revised down to 0.1%, as foreshadowed here. It will only take a small upward revision now for the "technical" recession, the double-dip, to be removed from the statistical record. More here.

Simon Ward of Henderson points out that the "onshore" double-dip has already been revised away. His note is here.