Tuesday, February 12, 2013
Stuck above target
Posted by David Smith at 12:00 PM
Category: Thoughts and responses

Consumer price inflation remained at 2.7% in January, which is a stability of sorts: CPI inflation has never before remained unchanged for four months in a row. RPI inflation, by contrast, is still moving around. The January rate of 3.3% was up from 3.1% in December. Indeed, you have to go back 18 months for a time when RPI inflation was stable for two months in a row.

There wasn't much bad news in these inflation numbers but there wasn't much good either. Every measure of inflation is stuck above 2%. The big change from the past is that goods prices are not offsetting service sector rises. In the latest numbers goods price inflation is 1.9%, service sector inflation 3.7%.

"Core" inflation, excluding energy, food and alcohol, did edge down from 2.4% to 2.3%, but with higher food and energy prices likely to put upward pressure on inflation in the coming months, that is small comfort. More here.