Friday, September 07, 2012
A post-Jubilee bounce
Posted by David Smith at 12:00 PM
Category: Thoughts and responses

After the distortions to the data for June, caused by two additional bank holidays (one shifted from May), there is a distortion in the opposite direction for July, industrial production jumping by 2.9%, its biggest monthly rise for 25 years, while manufacturing output rose by 3.2%. The release includes revisions to data for earlier months.

Reading through the distortions, industrial production in July was 1.6% above its second quarter average, so if it were to hold at the July level industry would make a significant contribution to GDP growth for the first time in several quarters. Industrial production was still down by 0.8% on a year earlier, while manufacturing output was down 0.5%, though in both cases these growth rates will soon turn positive if output merely holds at July levels. More here.

Also released, producer price figures for August showing a strong 2% rise in input prices (up 1.4% on a year ago), while output prices rose by 0.5% (up 2.2% year-on-year).