Thursday, September 06, 2012
OECD downbeat, Bank unchanged
Posted by David Smith at 12:45 PM
Category: Thoughts and responses

America is the best of a mediocre bunch in the OECD's latest interim assessment, with growth accelerating to a 2.4% annual rate by the fourth quarter. The eurozone remains the biggest threat to the global economy, with even Germany set for two quarters of recession in the remainder of 2012. The OECD's short-term forecast for Britain is downbeat, with an annualised GDP decline of 0.7% in the third quarter, followed by growth of 0.2% in the final three months of the year adding up to a 0.7% GDP drop for 2012 as a whole. Curiously, however, the OECD has not tried to adjust for the likely bounce in activity in the third quarter arising from Jubilee and Olympic distortions. The assessment is here.

The Bank of England, as expected, left Bank rate unchanged at 0.5% and made no change to the existing 375 bilion of quantitative easing.