Friday, August 24, 2012
A modest GDP revision
Posted by David Smith at 11:30 AM
Category: Thoughts and responses

There was no surprise in the fact that GDP was revised up for the second quarter - the first estimate from the Office for National Statistics of a 0.7% fall always looked too low. The surprise is that the revision, to a fall of 0.5%, was not bigger.

We knew the ONS estimates for industrial production and construction were too pessimistic, and each contributed 0.1 points to the revision. But there were also reaons to expect an upward revision to services, down 0.1% on the quarter, following stronger retail sales in June.

As it is, the economy appears to have been flat in the second quarter after the bank holiday effect is taken out. But these are still early stage numbers. Compared with a year earlier UK GDP, not adjusting for any bank holiday effect, was down 0.5%, similar to the 0.4% fall for the EU and eurozone. More here.