Monday, July 16, 2012
IMF - a question of arithmetic
Posted by David Smith at 05:30 PM
Category: Thoughts and responses

When you've had a drop in GDP in the fourth quarter of 2011, a further fall in the first quarter of 2012, and a likely fall in the second quarter, the growth arithmetic for 2012 as a while becomes very difficult. The Ernst & Young Item Club thinks it will leave us with zero growth this year, while the International Monetary Fund's latest figure, just out, is 0.2%.

Next year, the IMF says, growth will be 1.4% (the same as Germany). In each case, growth has bene revised down by 0.6 percentage points compared with the IMF's spring projections. These are disappointing figures, though are not being used by the IMF to push a Plan B, and won't be used by the government for that either.

The bigger picture for the world economy is less bad than feared, though these are just forecasts. Global growth for this year is trimmed fractionally to 3.5%, next year from 4.1% to 3.9%. More here.