Thursday, June 28, 2012
The recession gets revised
Posted by David Smith at 12:00 PM
Category: Thoughts and responses

There is a lot in the latest GDP release. It does not change the picture much for the latest quarters - that will come later - but it does give us a different picture for the recession, and for earlier years, as well as revising down growth for 2010 and revising it up for 2011.

So the peak-to-trough fall in GDP in the recession is now put at 6.3%, from 7.1%, 2010's growth is down to 2.1% from 1.8%, and 2011 is up from 0.7% to 0.8%. We still have the implausible double-dip, with a downward-revised GDP fall of 0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2011 followed by an unchanged 0.3% fall in the first quarter of 2012.

But these figures are a reminder that the revisions, in both directions, go on for years. 2005, for example, used to be thought of as a weak year for the economy. Today's figures revise it up from 2.1% to 2.8%. More here.