Tuesday, April 24, 2012
Borrowing exactly as forecast
Posted by David Smith at 11:30 AM
Category: Thoughts and responses

The Office for Budget Responsibility can be proud of its budget forecast of 126 billion of public sector net borrowing for 2011-12. Official figures from the Office for National Statistics show it came in exactly at that level, down from 136.8 billion in 2011-12. This was in spite of a larger-than-expected figure of 18.2 billion in March alone.

The ONS revised down its February figure, released on the morning of the March 21 budget, by more than 2 billion to 12.2 billion. The high March figure, the product of weak tax revenues and strong spending, may suffer the same fate. That means, while the OBR is right now, future revisions are likely to see the 2011-12 figure shaved. The government would appear to be in track to get borrowing down to 120 billion in 2012-13 (92 billion when the one-off Post Office payment is taken into account). More here.