Wednesday, December 07, 2011
Manufacturing down - bad start to Q4
Posted by David Smith at 09:45 AM
Category: Thoughts and responses

Both manufacturing and overall industrial production fell by 0.7% between September and October and, given the message from the surveys, things do not bode well for the rest of the fourth quarter. The service sector is growing but manufacturing is contracting. It was supposed to be the other way around.

What does this mean for Q4 GDP? Overall industrial production, which is what matters, is down 0.2% over the latest three months. It appears to have been depressed by the weakness of energy production, goven the exceptionally mild autumn, which continued into November. We need a cold December. More here.