Wednesday, March 30, 2011
On course for a decent first quarter bounce
Posted by David Smith at 01:30 PM
Category: Thoughts and responses

The Office for Budget Responsibility raised eyebrows with its prediction of a 0.8% bounce in gross domestic product in the first quarter and, in truth, only something bigger than the 0.5% fourth quarter drop will do.

For the OBR, and the rest of us, it is a case of so far, so good. Service sector output rose by 1.3% between December and January, to a level 0.6% above its fourth quarter average. If the service sector does no better than hold at these levels it will make a good contribution to Q1 growth. Also today, the CBI said retailers are having a pretty good March. The service sector data is here.