Friday, April 23, 2010
No double-dip, even before the revisions
Posted by David Smith at 09:45 AM
Category: Thoughts and responses

Just because the Office for National Statistics started with 0.1% growth for the fourth quarter and ended up with 0.4% (pending further revisions) does not mean its first quarter estimate of 0.2% will be revised up to 0.5% in a couple of months' time. But a preliminary estimate of 0.2% was not bad considering how severely the snow affected the January data and history would tell us that these numbers, indeed most of the recent GDP numbers, will end up significantly higher than now.

Otherwise, there's a hint of rebalancing in these figures, with production output of 0.7% exceeding that of services, 0.2%, though business services and finance were strong in the latter category. Most importantly, the greatest risk of a double dip was in the first quarter, and it has been avoided. More here.