Wednesday, January 13, 2010
Return to growth
Posted by David Smith at 03:15 PM
Category: Thoughts and responses

The November industrial production figures were disappointing, showing manufacturing output flat and overall production up by a modest 0.4% between October and November. More here. But that has not stopped the National Institute of Economic and Social Research predicting fourth quarter GDP growth of 0.3%.

Its analysis is here. I hope people avoid the temptation to go for NIESR's "biggest contraction since 1921" line. One thing we know is that in a couple if years of revisions it won't be.