Thursday, September 03, 2009
OECD versus the surveys
Posted by David Smith at 06:00 PM
Category: Thoughts and responses

The OECD, in an interim assessment of the economic outlook, says Britain's GDP will show a small decline in the current quarter and that it will be flat in the final quarter of the year, for an overall GDP fall of 4.7% this year, similar to Germany, 4.8%, but worse than America (2.8%), France (2.1%) and the G7 average (3.7%). The assessment is here.

The UK forecast sits oddly alongside the purchasing managers' survey for services, also out today, which showed a rise from 53.2 to 54.1, a level consistent with growth in the sector of 3%. This survey, taken together with those for manufacturing and services, suggest the economy returned to growth a couple of months ago.