This is the beginning of the winding down.

Assisted by IR increases this "abrupt" drop to underlying trend growth can be attributed to Mr.Brown's seriousness to increase supply.

The effects of the increases are insignificant as yet.

This is the beginning of the winding down.

Assisted by IR increases this "abrupt" drop to underlying trend growth can be attributed to Mr.Brown's seriousness to increase supply.

The effects of the increases are insignificant as yet.

Mortgage approvals - loans agreed but not yet made - have fallen from 85,006 in June 2006 to 75,318 last month (info from British Bankers' Association).

Who knows the truth behind the (damn lies and...) statistics? Pressure goups play with the stats to influence the Bank - they would have the Bank ignore inflation and have it concentrate on keeping the bubble inflated. On the other hand, they don't want to lie their way to a bust and may be overly optimistic. Whichever way you call it, one thing is certain: the stats are propaganda (and oh yes....so is the CPI). This entire economic and financial construct is a lie within a lie. Eventually the truth will out, and the economic historians of the 2020's will shower scorn upon the sanguine tones of the likes of DS in this era of mendacity.

Bah humbug - I only hope that was written after a trip to the pub, otherwise I'm worried for you.

I must admit to being a little cynical about big estate agents and building societies as commentators on the property market. When I've spoken with smaller local estate agents their view of the market has been privately rather less euphoric than the standard 'the market has a long way up yet to go' line from some quarters. When those same vested interests fear rising interest rates all of a sudden they say the market has slowed. You know deep down I'm not sure I trust people like Foxtons or Nationwide. Maybe I'm just mean spirited.

Meanwhile the BOE governor has said he'd like to include mortgages costs in the CPI. Surely it would be best to stick with a stable basket of items - otherwise how can you use an index as a measure of inflation trends. It's as though it's an unacceptable addition to the main measure of inflation when housing costs are inflationary, but when falling housing costs might counter other inflationary indicators then sling it in.

We have the RPI and the CPI - let them both be, choose which you're going to target and stick with it - otherwise the Bank looks rather too political and Bank independence starts to look suspect

Ms. Earley wrote “The Bank of England now faces a tough balancing act in the months ahead, with tightening
consumer finances on the one hand and resilient economic growth on the other."

Sounds like a warning, and based on an evident state of confusion of the writer "tightening consumer finances on the one hand and resilient economic growth". Is that a problem? Yeah, guess what... the MPC aimed at tightening the consumer finances in order to cool down the economy. So, if the economy is resilient more tightening is in order. Tough luck, Ms Earley!
The deregulated UK property market and accessories (mortgages, plumbers etc) deserves to be toned down, these pundits allowed to misrepresent marketing brochures for pieces of economic statistics.
Or at least Ms Earley should have the decency of releasing the data but no "vested interest" commentary.
Just as an aside... there is no, nul, zero, zip statistical significance behind one month of observations. So the risk is that here we are discussing hot air.

That's unfair - the full commentary is balanced, as opposed to the bits you've pulled out (only journalists are supposed to do that). The Nationwide's house price index has been invaluable, and along with the Halifax has provided a service that is only now being matched by official figures. That's why all serious housing commentators and policymakers use these statistics. Also, there's a bit more than a month's figures to go on, taking June approvals and July house prices together. The trend towards a softening of approvals has been evident for some time.

David is right. I can understand why some of you are sceptical. But the fact is, the Nationwide and Halifax indices have tracked the official government measure pretty accurately for 30 years or so. Plus, they're more timely than the official statistics.

But just to show I'm not going soft on Mr Smith, even if mortgage approvals meet the market's expectation at 110k next week (CML data suggests something closer to 115k), that's still consistent with house prices rising at about a 10% annualized rate. Approvals might have softened, but if the MPCs really wants to slow consumer spending, they'll have to soften further.

Hi Sells

However I would point out, the approval numbers are before the last rate increase, and the one before that wouldn't have fully worked into them. (Normally about a 4 month lag between interest rate rises and the approval numbers reflecting it

And then of course approvals are of course behind the "live market"

So there is IMHO, two rate rises that aren't yet even reflected in the Nationwide or the Approval numbers......

There is only one way approvals are going over the next 6 months even if the BOE doesn't raise rates again.....

The BBA data showed an 11.4% drop on a year ago, implying something closer to 105,000 on the Bank's figures, though these things are never mechanical. What matters is the trend, which is plainly downwards.

That's a fair point. Plus, I'd say there is still about half of the previous interest rate hikes yet to feed through.