Sunday, January 01, 2006
The forecasting league table
Posted by David Smith at 08:00 PM
Category: David Smith's other articles

Click on 'more' for my annual league table of economic forecasters, measuring their performance last year. The forecasts are, respectively, for 2005 growth, fourth quarter consumer price inflation, the current account deficit ( billion), unemployment (claimant count, fourth quarter, millions) and base rate, end-year. The final column is the score, out of 10. Perhaps a suitable topic for our new discussion forum.

Outturn 1.75 2.1 -26.5 0.90 4.5 10

1. Capital Economics 2.0 1.8 -25.0 0.90 4.10 9

2. Deutsche Bank 2.5 1.9 -30.8 0.82 4.50 7

3. Hermes 2.2 1.8 -20.0 0.93 4.25 7

4. Dresdner Kleinwort 2.2 1.7 -31.5 0.84 4.0 6

5. Economic Perspectives 1.1 1.6 -24.0 1.05 4.5 6

6. HSBC 2.0 1.5 -27.0 0.92 5.0 6

7. ING 2.4 1.8 -29.0 NF 4.5 6

8. Schroders 2.4 1.8 -28.9 0.90 5.0 6

9. ABN-Amro 1.9 1.6 NF NF 4.75 5

10. Bank of America 2.1 1.7 -20.5 NF 4.25 5

11. CBI 2.5 1.6 -25.8 0.82 5.0 5

12. CSFB 2.8 1.8 -28.0 0.80 5.0 5

13. EIU 2.3 1.5 -29.2 0.85 4.5 5

14. Global Insight 2.6 1.9 -25.0 0.82 4.75 5

15. IMF 2.5 1.8 -24.0 NF NF 5

16. UBS 2.5 1.7 -25.0 0.84 5.0 5

17. West LB 2.6 1.9 -31.0 0.82 4.5 5

18. Bridgewell 2.5 2.6 -43.8 0.79 5.75 4

19. Citigroup 3.2 1.9 -27.2 0.69 5.25 4

20. Economy.com 2.7 2.3 -28.1 1.10 5.0 4

21. Ernst & Young Item Club 2.7 1.9 -31.0 - 4.75 4

22. European Commission 2.8 1.9 -22.0 NF NF 4

23. Experian Business Strategies 3.0 2.0 -37.8 0.85 4.75 4

24. Lehman Brothers 2.4 1.7 -36.5 0.93 4.75 4

25. Lombard Street 3.0 2.0 -20.0 0.82 5.25 4

26. Morgan Stanley 2.1 1.6 NF NF 4.75 4

27. National Institute 2.8 2.0 -32.2 0.84 5.2 4

28. Standard Chartered 2.5 NF -23 0.82 4.25 4

29. Williams de Broe 2.8 1.7 -35.9 0.84 4.5 4

30. Barclays Capital 3.1 2.1 -32.8 0.78 5.25 3

31. Daiwa 2.7 1.5 -34.3 0.80 4.5 3

32. Goldman Sachs 2.6 2.0 -20.8 0.74 5.0 3

33. HM Treasury 3.25 1.75 -30.25 NF NF 3

34. MacroEcon.com 3.5 2.5 NF 0.83 5.25 3

35. Oxford Economic Forecasting 2.7 1.7 -31.3 0.79 4.75 3

36. JP Morgan 2.5 1.4 -37.0 - 4.75 2

37. Cambridge Econometrics 2.7 NF -31.3 0.90 5.10 2

38. CEBR 2.7 1.5 -36.4 0.89 4.9 2

39. Liverpool Macro Research 2.5 NF -38.6 1.06 3.9 2

40. OECD 2.6 NF -29.0 NF 5.5 1


SCORING SYSTEM: GDP growth: 3 points for 1.5%-2%; 2 points for 1.25%-2.25%; 1 point for 1%-2.5%. Inflation: 3 points for 1.8%-2.4%; 2 points for 1.6%-2.6%; 1 point for 1.3%-2.9%. Current account: 1 point for within 5 billion of outturn. Unemployment: 1 point for 0.8m-1m. Base rate: 1 point for 4.5% or below. Bonus: 1 point for inflation exceeding growth. NF = No Forecast for this variable.


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