Sunday, May 01, 2005
Election watch - a 100 majority?
Posted by David Smith at 11:01 AM
Category: Thoughts and responses

Crunch time is near for the opinion pollsters. The final Sunday Times-YouGov poll has Labour on 36%, the Conservatives 33% and the Liberal Democrats 23%. This would produce a 92-seat Labour majority. This is similar to the authorative by-election model prediction from Professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, directors of the Elections Centre, University of Plymouth.

The by-election model, which has as its basis the votes cast in council by-elections every week, predicts Labour on 37%, the Conservatives 34% and the Liberal Democrats 21%, a Labour majority of 96. This model accurately predicted the parties' vote shares in the 1997 and 2001 elections.

Other polls, it should be said, point to far bigger Labour leads, and majorities. The word from the constituencies is that things are closer than the polls suggest. As I say, crunch time approaches.

Comments

just trying to post somthing

Posted by: Cower at July 20, 2005 08:27 AM

YYEH!! I DID it... and before the last one it was only error...
Sorry for interrupting %))

Posted by: Cower at July 20, 2005 08:28 AM
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