Friday, May 09, 2008
FT house prices and repossession orders
Posted by David Smith at 11:30 AM
Category: Thoughts and responses

The FT-Acadametrics house price index continues to provide a much calmer picture than other measures. It reckons prices slipped by 0.2% last month, as in March, to take the annual rate down to 4.1%. Regionally, annual rates range from 0.9% in Wales to 10.7% in Greater London. This is one index pointing to flat rather than collapsing prices. Details here.

Repossession orders rose in the first quarter, though by slightly less than had been predicted in some of the morning papers. Here's the BBC's online report.

Thursday, May 08, 2008
Unchanged at 5%
Posted by David Smith at 12:20 PM
Category: Thoughts and responses

The Bank of England's monetary policy committee left Bank rate unchanged at 5%, as most analysts had expected, despite a late flurry of weak data. Attention will now switch to the Bank's quarterly inflation report on Wednesday.

Tuesday, May 06, 2008
Dragon and Elephant II
Posted by David Smith at 12:45 PM
Category: Thoughts and responses

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For those who are interested, there is a new paperback edition of my book The Dragon and the Elephant: China, India and the New World Order. Pocket-sized and with a new introduction, it can be bought on Amazon for the incredibly low price of just £6.29. Here's a link.

Sunday, May 04, 2008
Will housing crush the UK economy?
Posted by David Smith at 09:00 AM
Category: David Smith's other articles

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Recent days have witnessed some extraordinary developments, most of them from the Bank of England. Time was when months would go by without a peep from the Old Lady. Now it has become a news-generating machine that Max Clifford would be proud of.

Development one was Mervyn King's attack on the City's reward culture, which many will applaud, though some would say a bit of performance-related incentive is a good thing. The governor's salary of just under £282,000 — small in relation to many City salaries though with a pension pot of nearly £4m — rises 2% a year, come what may. That gives him an incentive to keep inflation on target but doesn't reward or punish him beyond that.

Development two was a speech by David "Danny" Blanchflower, one of King's colleagues on the Bank's monetary policy committee (MPC). This was, it is safe to say, the most doom-laden speech ever from a UK policymaker, warning that Britain was likely to follow America into recession (whether the US is in recession is still open for debate after first-quarter numbers showed growth), that a fall in house prices of a third in two to three years "does not seem implausible" and the risk of something "horrible" arising from the credit crunch was significant.

Compared with the coded language normally adopted by anybody with anything to do with the Bank, this was a revelation. Blanchflower spends half his time in America and that may explain his gloom, but even there central bankers are a bit more guarded in their language. I am surprised this one got past the censors.

(More...)
Shadow MPC votes 5-4 to hold rates
Posted by David Smith at 08:59 AM
Category: Independently-submitted research

Following its latest quarterly meeting (carried out in conjunction with the Sunday Times) the Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (SMPC) narrowly voted to leave Bank Rate unchanged on Thursday 8th May. In particular, five members of the shadow committee voted for rates to remain on hold, while four members voted to cut the official interest rate.

The advocates of a rate cut were divided, with two wanting a ¼% reduction and two a cut of ½%. The SMPC gathering was held on Tuesday 15th April. However, the vote was re-opened following the announcement of the Bank of England’s Special Liquidity Scheme on 21st April. One member changed his vote from a ¼ % reduction to a hold in response.

Members of the SMPC remained concerned by the problems that had arisen with sub-prime lending. However, whilst some members wanted a reduction in interest rates, others expressed the view that interest rates were not an effective tool for dealing with the serious problems in the UK banking sector. Furthermore, a number of members felt that loosening monetary policy could damage the Bank of England’s credibility given the serious inflationary pressures in the economy.

Members also stressed the importance of non-interest-rate measures in the current circumstances. There was general agreement that the Bank of England should provide liquidity to the markets. However, members stressed the crucial importance of mopping up liquidity after the crisis was over, in order to avoid the severe inflationary problems that have appeared after some previous financial markets shocks.

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Thursday, May 01, 2008
The Bank's financial stability report
Posted by David Smith at 09:30 AM
Category: Thoughts and responses

Is the glass half full or half empty? The Bank of England's six-monthly Financial Stability Report has been reported as saying the worst of the crisis is over. It is, perhaps, a bit more measured than that but it does say that while the credit crisis is "proving even more prolonged and difficult than anticipated" there are reasons for optimism.

Prices in some credit markets are now likely to overstate the losses that will ultimately be felt by the financial system and the economy as a whole, it says, as they appear to include large discounts for illiquidity and uncertainty. Conditions should improve as market participants recognise that some assets look cheap relative to credit fundamentals.

According to John Gieve, deputy governor with responsibility for financial stability: “The unavoidable correction after the credit boom is proving protracted and difficult. However the pricing of risk in credit markets seems to have swung from being unsustainably low last summer to being temporarily too high relative to fundamentals. So, while there remain downside risks, the most likely path ahead is that confidence and risk appetite will return gradually in the coming months.”

The report is here.

Wednesday, April 30, 2008
Nationwide and Blanchflower
Posted by David Smith at 09:45 AM
Category: Thoughts and responses

The Nationwide Building Society reported that house prices fell by 1.1% in April and were down by 1% on a year earlier, the first year-on-year fall on its index since 1996. The shift from 10.2% house-price inflation in April last year has been abrupt. Details here. Also, a doom-laden speech from monetary policy committee member David Blanchflower, warning that house prices could fall by a third and that interest rates need to be slashed to head off a UK recession. The speech is here.

Tuesday, April 29, 2008
Mortgage approvals 64,000
Posted by David Smith at 09:45 AM
Category: Thoughts and responses

Mortgage approvals in March hit a new series low of 64,000, down from 72,000 in February (itself revised down) and an average of 81,000 over the previous six months. Though the figure was weak, it was perhaps not as weak as it could have been given earlier data from the British Bankers' Association. Total approvals, including remortgaging, dropped from 243,000 to 220,000. In cash terms lending was £6.9 billion, and the growth rate slowed from 9.4% to 9.1%. Other consumer credit rose by £1.2 billion, a more normal figure after February's £2.3 billion jump which got everybody excited. But this was enough to put the growth rate of consumer credit up from 6.5% to 6.7%. Details are here.