The service sector purchasing managers' index slipped to 51.6 in June from 51.7 in May but remains consistent with expansion in the sector. Indeed, according to Markit, which produces the data, the June PMIs signal growth for the economy as a whole.

"A weighted combination of the output indices from the three PMI surveys that are conducted by Markit in the UK in association with CIPS shows that the output of the three sectors increased for the second successive month in June. At 51.0, up from 50.4 in May, the ‘all sector’ index also indicated a modest acceleration in the rate of growth to the fastest since March 2008."

Also out, figures from the Bank of England showing that housing equity withdrawal was negative by £8.1 billion, 3.5% of post tax income, in the first quarter. A year earlier HEW was positive to the tune of 2.9% of income. The release is here.

It isn't my job to advise Gordon Brown but his performances in prime minister's question time are becoming a national embarrassment. "Zero per cent growth" indeed. However hard he tries to disguise it, the Treasury's plans for the period 2011 to 2014 imply a real cut in overall public spending and deep cuts (though these are implied rather than explicit) in departmental spending.

This is what I would do: concentrate on the numbers for the whole of the next parliament rather than just the 2011-2014 period. The sequence for total spending in real terms, 2009-10 prices, is courtesy of the Institute for Fiscal Studies: £682 billion in 2009-10, then £702 billion in 2010-11, £700 billion in 2011-12, £701 billion in 2012-13 and £700 billion in 2013-14.

2009-10 is the last full year of this parliament. 2013-14 will probably be the last full year of the next parliament. Comparing the two, Brown could say that the Treasury plans imply a real spending rise albeit a modest one (2.6% over four years) during the next parliament. Or he could carry on making a fool of himself ...

It's a slow process but at least it is moving in the right direction. The Bank of England's credit conditions survey suggests a modest improvement in credit availability over the past three months with a further improvement expected over the next three. It can be accessed here.

The purchasing managers' index for UK manufacturing rose to 47 in June, from 45.4 in May, signalling that the sector is close to stabilising. The output index rose to 52.1. Taken together with official data showing a negligible 0.1% fall in service sector output in April, the figures are an antidote to yesterday's downward revision in first quarter GDP.

The eurozone manufacturing PMI rose to a nine-month high of 42.4, while there was also better news for German retail sales, up 0.4% in May following a 0.5% rise in April. German consumers need to spend to offset the weakness in world trade. China's PMI edged up to 53.2, from 53.1.

Britain's first quarter domestic product had been expected to be revised lower, following the release by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) of much gloomier numbers for construction output. But the scale of the downward revision, from a drop of 1.9% to one of 2.4%, the worst since 1958, was a surpise, reflecting also service-sector weakness.

The drop in GDP between the first quarters of 2008 and 2009 is now put at 4.9%, a record, and the official figures confirm that the recession began in the second quarter of 2008. All in all, a bad set of figures. They could be a "kitchen sink" set of numbers - everything bad thrown in - and they should certainly mark the worst we'll see, if not for another 50 years. Do you go from a 2.4% first quarter fall to a flat second quarter? It's possible, though perhaps a statistical stretch too far. More details here.

Optimism that the worst of the recession is over is giving way to uncertainty about what shape the recovery might take. The events of the past two years have taken us into uncharted territory. What will the route back to normality be like?

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development concluded in its latest outlook that the worst of the recession for advanced economies was over but cautioned against putting up the bunting.

“OECD activity now looks to be approaching its nadir, following the deepest decline in post-war history,” it said. “The ensuing recovery is likely to be both weak and fragile for some time. And the negative economic and social consequences of the crisis will be long-lasting.”

For Britain, which the OECD predicts will see a 4.3% drop in gross domestic product this year, followed by a flat 2010 (though with a pick-up through the year) those consequences will include dealing with a budget deficit it expects to see hit 14% of gross domestic product next year.

As the battle over who should be responsible for preventing a re-run of the banking crisis continues, the Bank of England has set out some thoughts in its Financial Stability Report. It sets out five principles for reform of regulation, while warning that the system remains vulnerable.

"Policies on market discipline, bank regulation, market infrastructure and bank structure and size should be based on their impact on overall financial system stability, not just on individual firms," it says. "This systemic perspective has not always shaped policy around the world sufficiently in the past." The report can be accessed here.

The OECD's Economic Outlook says that the global recession is close to bottoming out but that recovery prospects are weak. Even so, it thinks avoiding a worse outcome is "a major achievement" of policy. On its projections, the OECD economy will begin to grow - modestly - in the fourth quarter. That's gloomier than some, but probably close to the consensus. A summary of its projections is here.